Real Odds – Pregame Methodology
In this post, we want to briefly show the betting strategy that works, used by Betpractice to calculate the pregame probabilities and “real” odds , ie those that can be observed from the Coupon or in the Prematch area in addition to those established by the various bookmakers.
We start from the following assumptions, supposing to work for the Arsenal vs Chelsea football match.
To calculate odds and probabilities for eg. home win we use three data samples.
Arsenal vs Chelsea game example 🠟
Game sample 1: Arsenal’s previous home games plus Chelsea’s previous away games.
Game sample 2: Arsenal’s home wins
Game sample 3: Chelsea’s away losses
The probability for home win is:
“ home win ” = (sample 2 + sample 3) / (sample 1)
In the same way, it is possible to calculate the pregame probability for all outcomes, such as draw, away win, Under 2.5, Over 1.5 etc.
Another question is: how many football games back, shall we need to include to the above data samples?
Generally, many people rely solely on the last 6 games to make their predictions. In Betpractice Platform, using such a limited data sample would not allow to obtain enough data large to have an adequate real share and help us make an accurate prediction.
In the graph below, we show how Betpractice assume previous matches in Real Odds calculation.
Team Markets, how Real Odds are calculated by default
Data sample for Team Markets, such as final result, first half result, etc.
Therefore, for Team Markets we use the data of the matches of the last two seasons, plus those of the current up to matchday number 10. Subsequently, having obtained a good database of the current year, we can focus on the current one plus the previous one.
Goal & Score Markets, how Real Odds are calculated by default
The data sample for the markets related to goals and results is different (such as Under 2.5, Over 1.5, Asian handicap, etc.).
In this case, we take into consideration at the beginning of the season the data of the last 4 seasons + the current. After the tenth day, we consider the last 3 seasons plus the current one.